Łomża 2–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: Result & Stats

Łomża

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

3/2/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża40%

×Draw23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁomżaExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.63

Łomża

1.70

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.10

creates per match

2.14

1.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Łomża

2.10

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.14

allows per match

Łomża

1.12

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Łomża or draw

63%

Łomża or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

77%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

60%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+

20%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals

82%

Łomża 2+ goals

51%

Łomża 3+ goals

24%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

80%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

48%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)

52%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Łomża scores more

40%

level

23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

37%

Łomża at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff