Łomża 1–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki: Result & Stats

Łomża

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

4/18/2026

III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 27Stadion Miejski w Lomzy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża52%

×Draw22%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁomżaExpected goals in this matchLechia T. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.38

Łomża

2.00

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.38

Łomża creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

2.10

creates per match

1.63

1.12

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Łomża

2.10

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.63

allows per match

Łomża

1.12

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Łomża or draw

73%

Łomża or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

78%

Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

48%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+

30%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals

86%

Łomża 2+ goals

59%

Łomża 3+ goals

32%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

75%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

40%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)

66%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Łomża scores more

52%

level

22%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more

27%

Łomża at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff