Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Łomża vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Łomża
Łomża
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
10/28/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża65%
×Draw19%
Concordia Elbląg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łomża
2.33
Concordia Elbląg
1.08

Łomża creates 116% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Łomża
2.10
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Łomża
1.12
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Łomża or draw
84%
Łomża or Concordia Elbląg
81%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
35%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+
42%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals
90%
Łomża 2+ goals
67%
Łomża 3+ goals
41%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
66%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
29%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)
80%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.33

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Łomża scores more
65%
level
19%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
16%

Łomża at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łomża vs Concordia Elbląg

Concordia Elbląg beat Łomża 4-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Łomża.