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Omonia Nicosia vs Sheriff Tiraspol — UEFA Europa League 2018

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
9/8/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Omonia Nicosia43%
×Draw26%
Sheriff Tiraspol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
1.48
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.24

Omonia Nicosia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
1.33
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.82

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
1.67
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.64

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
68%
Omonia Nicosia or Sheriff Tiraspol
74%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
57%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
21%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
77%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
43%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
19%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
71%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
35%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
57%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.33 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 0.82 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
43%
level
26%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
32%

Omonia Nicosia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omonia Nicosia vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Omonia Nicosia 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on September 8, 2022.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.