Omonia Nicosia 3–1 Rapid Vienna: Result & Stats

Omonia Nicosia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rapid Vienna

S. Alioum 90+6'

Willy Semedo 66'

A. Kakoullis 52'

D. Beljo 62'

12/12/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Omonia Nicosia48%

×Draw24%

Rapid Vienna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia NicosiaExpected goals in this matchRapid Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.18

Omonia Nicosia

1.65

Rapid Vienna

1.18

Omonia Nicosia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

1.53

0.83

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia

1.83

Rapid Vienna

1.53

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia

0.83

Rapid Vienna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Rapid Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw

73%

Omonia Nicosia or Rapid Vienna

76%

Draw or Rapid Vienna

52%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

25%

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

81%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

49%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

23%

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

69%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

33%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

64%

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.83 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rapid Vienna attack 1.53 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more

48%

level

24%

Rapid Vienna scores more

27%

Omonia Nicosia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Auer

Rapid Vienna · D

8.0

Match Events

31'

Nenad Cvetković

46'

I. Jansson← M. Seidl

46'

J. Schöller← N. Cvetković

51'

Mateo Marić

52'

A. Kakoullis↳ C. Charalampous

62'

D. Beljo↳ J. Auer

64'

Willy Semedo← L. Loizou

66'

Willy Semedo↳ A. Kakoullis

67'

G. Burgstaller← N. Wurmbrand

74'

Mamadou Sangare

76'

S. Alioum← C. Charalampous

76'

A. Neophytou← A. Kakoullis

76'

N. Bischof← L. Schaub

77'

N. Eraković← I. Kousoulos

83'

D. Kaygin← M. Sangaré

90+1'

G. Masouras← V. Simić

90+6'

S. Alioum↳ A. Neophytou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OmoniaRapid

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots19

1.55Expected Goals (xG)1.20

6Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots19

7On Target4

4Off Target6

0Blocked9

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

334Total Passes538

253Accurate Passes452

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.52Goals Prevented-0.52

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2