Omonia Nicosia 0–3 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Omonia Nicosia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Legia Warszawa

P. Wszołek 85'

M. Szczepaniak 77'

R. Morishita 17'

11/28/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Omonia Nicosia43%

×Draw23%

Legia Warszawa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia NicosiaExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.50

Omonia Nicosia

1.71

Legia Warszawa

1.50

Omonia Nicosia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

2.16

0.83

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia

1.83

Legia Warszawa

2.16

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia

0.83

Legia Warszawa

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw

66%

Omonia Nicosia or Legia Warszawa

77%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

57%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

22%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

82%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

51%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

24%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

78%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

44%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

56%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.83 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Legia Warszawa attack 2.16 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more

43%

level

23%

Legia Warszawa scores more

34%

Omonia Nicosia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Augustyniak

Legia Warszawa · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

R. Morishita↳ Marc Gual

25'

Ryoya Morishita

27'

Mateo Marić

46'

S. Alioum← G. Masouras

46'

N. Eraković← I. Kousoulos

60'

A. Kakoullis← M. Stępiński

63'

P. Kun← Rúben Vinagre

63'

J. Çelhaka← R. Morishita

76'

Ewandro← Willy Semedo

76'

M. Szczepaniak← K. Chodyna

77'

M. Szczepaniak↳ R. Augustyniak

82'

L. Loizou← V. Simić

85'

J. Majchrzak← Marc Gual

85'

P. Wszołek

89'

Bartosz Kapustka

90+2'

Ewandro Costa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OmoniaLegia

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots13

1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.56

5Corners5

8Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked6

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

517Total Passes409

451Accurate Passes346

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

1.45Goals Prevented1.45

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1