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Omonia Nicosia vs Enosis — 1. Division 2019

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enosis
Enosis
E. Andreou 77'
R. Mmaee 59'
W. Semedo 45' (pen)
2/14/20261. Division1. Division · Round 22GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Omonia Nicosia76%
×Draw16%
Enosis8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
2.27
Enosis
0.56

Omonia Nicosia creates 305% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
2.18
Enosis
0.58

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
0.55
Enosis
2.35

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.42scores more
Enosis-0.18scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Enosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
92%
Omonia Nicosia or Enosis
84%
Draw or Enosis
24%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
52%
Enosis wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
90%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
66%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
39%
Enosis 1+ goals
43%
Enosis 2+ goals
11%
Enosis 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
91%
Enosis (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.55 · 5 matches

Enosis away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.35 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 2.18 + Enosis defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.27

Enosis attack 0.58 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
76%
level
16%
Enosis scores more
8%

Omonia Nicosia at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. ChatzigiovanisOmonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia · M
9.0

Match Events

21'
João Cesco
32'
Emmanuel Okeke
45+7'
Demir Imeri
45'
W. SemedoPenalty
59'
R. Mmaee
65'
E. Andreou← A. Chatzigiovanis
65'
A. Christou← M. Odubajo
65'
D. Solomou← M. Charalampous
70'
N. Erakovic← M. Tankovic
70'
A. Neofytou← W. Semedo
75'
A. Christofi← M. Simonovski
75'
L. Kosmas← A. Kozar
77'
M. Maric← R. Mmaee
77'
E. Andreou
78'
Senou Coulibaly
80'
Antonis Katsiaris
85'
J. Goldschadt← A. Katsiaris
85'
J. Kazan← A. Ella
86'
Jonas Goldschadt

Possession

67%Omonia

Shots

22Omonia

Pass accuracy

53%Omonia

Statistics

OmoniaEnosis
Overview
67%Possession33%
22Total Shots6
3.88Expected Goals (xG)0.76
10Corners2
10Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots6
9On Target0
8Off Target3
4Blocked3
14Inside Box4
8Outside Box2
Passing
67%Possession33%
513Total Passes240
453Accurate Passes189
88%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

1. Division: Omonia Nicosia 3–0 Enosis

Omonia Nicosia beat Enosis 3-0 in 1. Division on February 14, 2026.

Goals: W. Semedo (45' pen), R. Mmaee (59'), E. Andreou (77').

Omonia Nicosia controlled possession (67%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.