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Omonia Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca — Cup 2019

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosiaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
1/14/2026CupCup · Round of 16GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Omonia Nicosia38%
×Draw24%
AEK Larnaca38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
1.58
AEK Larnaca
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
2.00
AEK Larnaca
2.42

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
0.76
AEK Larnaca
1.17

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
62%
Omonia Nicosia or AEK Larnaca
76%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
62%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
19%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
79%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
47%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
21%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
80%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
47%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
50%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 2.00 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

AEK Larnaca attack 2.42 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
38%
level
24%
AEK Larnaca scores more
38%

Omonia Nicosia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omonia Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca

Omonia Nicosia beat AEK Larnaca 2-1 in Cup on January 14, 2026.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.