Omonia Nicosia 0–1 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Omonia Nicosia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AEK Larnaca

3/9/2024

1. Division · Championship Round - 3Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Omonia Nicosia47%

×Draw27%

AEK Larnaca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia NicosiaExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.99

Omonia Nicosia

1.43

AEK Larnaca

0.99

Omonia Nicosia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

1.79

creates per match

1.29

0.69

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia

1.79

AEK Larnaca

1.29

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia

0.69

AEK Larnaca

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw

74%

Omonia Nicosia or AEK Larnaca

73%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

53%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

23%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

76%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

42%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

17%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

63%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

26%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

64%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.79 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more

47%

level

27%

AEK Larnaca scores more

26%

Omonia Nicosia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff