Omonia Aradippou 2–2 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Omonia Aradippou

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ethnikos Achna

2/23/2025

1. Division · Round 24Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Omonia Aradippou41%

×Draw25%

Ethnikos Achna34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia AradippouExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.38

Omonia Aradippou

1.54

Ethnikos Achna

1.38

Omonia Aradippou creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 101 away

1.15

creates per match

1.22

1.53

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Omonia Aradippou

1.15

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

Omonia Aradippou

1.53

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Aradippou+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Aradippou ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Omonia Aradippou or draw

66%

Omonia Aradippou or Ethnikos Achna

75%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

59%

Winning margin

Omonia Aradippou wins by 2+

20%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Omonia Aradippou 1+ goals

79%

Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals

45%

Omonia Aradippou 3+ goals

20%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

75%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

40%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Omonia Aradippou (draw refunded)

55%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Aradippou at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Aradippou attack 1.15 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Omonia Aradippou defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Omonia Aradippou scores more

41%

level

25%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

34%

Omonia Aradippou at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Omonia Aradippou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff