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Omonia Aradippou vs Ethnikos Achna — Cup 2019

Omonia Aradippou
Omonia Aradippou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
12/6/2023CupCup · 1st RoundStadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Omonia Aradippou25%
×Draw21%
Ethnikos Achna54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Aradippou
1.46
Ethnikos Achna
2.19

Ethnikos Achna creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Omonia Aradippou
2.00
Ethnikos Achna
2.38

allows per match

Omonia Aradippou
2.00
Ethnikos Achna
0.92

finishing

Omonia Aradippou+0.00on par
Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Aradippou ↓

Ethnikos Achna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Omonia Aradippou or draw
46%
Omonia Aradippou or Ethnikos Achna
79%
Draw or Ethnikos Achna
75%

Winning margin

Omonia Aradippou wins by 2+
11%
Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Omonia Aradippou 1+ goals
77%
Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals
43%
Omonia Aradippou 3+ goals
18%
Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
89%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
64%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Omonia Aradippou (draw refunded)
32%
Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Aradippou at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Aradippou attack 2.00 + Ethnikos Achna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ethnikos Achna attack 2.38 + Omonia Aradippou defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Omonia Aradippou scores more
25%
level
21%
Ethnikos Achna scores more
54%

Ethnikos Achna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Omonia Aradippou 0–2 Ethnikos Achna

Ethnikos Achna beat Omonia Aradippou 2-0 in Cup on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.