Omladinac Zablaće 1–0 Tutin: Result & Stats

Omladinac Zablaće

FT

1 – 0

Tutin

3/10/2024

Srpska Liga - West · West - 16Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Omladinac Zablaće54%

×Draw25%

Tutin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac ZablaćeExpected goals in this matchTutin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.87

Omladinac Zablaće

1.58

Tutin

0.87

Omladinac Zablaće creates 82% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 56 away

1.34

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Omladinac Zablaće

1.34

Tutin

0.88

allows per match

Omladinac Zablaće

0.86

Tutin

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac Zablaće+0.00on par

Tutin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac Zablaće ↓

Tutin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Omladinac Zablaće or draw

79%

Omladinac Zablaće or Tutin

75%

Draw or Tutin

46%

Winning margin

Omladinac Zablaće wins by 2+

29%

Tutin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Omladinac Zablaće 1+ goals

79%

Omladinac Zablaće 2+ goals

47%

Omladinac Zablaće 3+ goals

21%

Tutin 1+ goals

58%

Tutin 2+ goals

22%

Tutin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Omladinac Zablaće (draw refunded)

72%

Tutin (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac Zablaće at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Tutin away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac Zablaće attack 1.34 + Tutin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tutin attack 0.88 + Omladinac Zablaće defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Omladinac Zablaće scores more

54%

level

25%

Tutin scores more

21%

Omladinac Zablaće at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Omladinac Zablaće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff