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Omladinac Zablaće vs Jošanica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Omladinac Zablaće
Omladinac Zablaće
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jošanica
Jošanica
8/24/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 2Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Omladinac Zablaće50%
×Draw27%
Jošanica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac Zablaće
1.44
Jošanica
0.90

Omladinac Zablaće creates 60% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

creates per match

Omladinac Zablaće
1.34
Jošanica
0.94

allows per match

Omladinac Zablaće
0.86
Jošanica
1.54

finishing

Omladinac Zablaće+0.00on par
Jošanica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac Zablaće ↓

Jošanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Omladinac Zablaće or draw
76%
Omladinac Zablaće or Jošanica
73%
Draw or Jošanica
50%

Winning margin

Omladinac Zablaće wins by 2+
25%
Jošanica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Omladinac Zablaće 1+ goals
76%
Omladinac Zablaće 2+ goals
42%
Omladinac Zablaće 3+ goals
18%
Jošanica 1+ goals
59%
Jošanica 2+ goals
23%
Jošanica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Omladinac Zablaće (draw refunded)
68%
Jošanica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac Zablaće at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Jošanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac Zablaće attack 1.34 + Jošanica defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jošanica attack 0.94 + Omladinac Zablaće defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Omladinac Zablaće scores more
50%
level
27%
Jošanica scores more
24%

Omladinac Zablaće at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Omladinac Zablaće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Omladinac Zablaće 1–1 Jošanica

Omladinac Zablaće and Jošanica drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće in Zablaće.