Omladinac NB 2–1 Stari Grad: Result & Stats

Omladinac NB

FT

2 – 1

Stari Grad

9/11/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Omladinac NB52%

×Draw23%

Stari Grad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchStari Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.12

Omladinac NB

1.77

Stari Grad

1.12

Omladinac NB creates 58% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

1.61

creates per match

1.09

1.15

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

Stari Grad

1.09

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

Stari Grad

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Stari Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

76%

Omladinac NB or Stari Grad

77%

Draw or Stari Grad

48%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

29%

Stari Grad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

83%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

53%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

26%

Stari Grad 1+ goals

67%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

31%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

69%

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

52%

level

23%

Stari Grad scores more

24%

Omladinac NB at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff