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Omladinac NB vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
FT
0 – 1
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
3/11/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Omladinac NB49%
×Draw24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac NB
1.69
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.17

Omladinac NB creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 72 away

creates per match

Omladinac NB
1.61
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Omladinac NB
1.15
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw
74%
Omladinac NB or Hajduk 1912 Kula
76%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
51%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+
26%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals
82%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
50%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
69%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
33%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
65%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Omladinac NB scores more
49%
level
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
26%

Omladinac NB at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Omladinac NB 0–1 Hajduk 1912 Kula

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Omladinac NB 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac in Novi Banovci.