Omladinac NB 1–2 FK Becej: Result & Stats

Omladinac NB

FT

1 – 2

FK Becej

10/10/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Omladinac NB58%

×Draw21%

FK Becej21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.15

Omladinac NB

2.05

FK Becej

1.15

Omladinac NB creates 78% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 88 away

1.61

creates per match

1.16

1.15

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

FK Becej

1.16

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

FK Becej

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

79%

Omladinac NB or FK Becej

79%

Draw or FK Becej

42%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

35%

FK Becej wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

87%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

61%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

33%

FK Becej 1+ goals

68%

FK Becej 2+ goals

32%

FK Becej 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

73%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.05

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

58%

level

21%

FK Becej scores more

21%

Omladinac NB at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff