Omladinac NB 4–1 Dunav Stari Banovci

Omladinac NB

FT

4 – 1

Dunav Stari Banovci

3/17/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Omladinac NB67%

×Draw19%

Dunav Stari Banovci14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchDunav Stari Banovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.86

Omladinac NB

2.18

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.86

Omladinac NB creates 153% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

0.57

1.15

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.57

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

Dunav Stari Banovci

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

86%

Omladinac NB or Dunav Stari Banovci

81%

Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci

33%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

43%

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

89%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

64%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

37%

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

58%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

21%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

83%

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

67%

level

19%

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

14%

Omladinac NB at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff