Omladinac NB 1–1 Borac Šajkaš: Result & Stats

Omladinac NB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borac Šajkaš

9/8/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Omladinac NB50%

×Draw25%

Borac Šajkaš25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchBorac Šajkaš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.04

Omladinac NB

1.59

Borac Šajkaš

1.04

Omladinac NB creates 53% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 60 away

1.61

creates per match

0.93

1.15

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

Borac Šajkaš

0.93

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

Borac Šajkaš

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Borac Šajkaš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

75%

Omladinac NB or Borac Šajkaš

75%

Draw or Borac Šajkaš

50%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

26%

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

80%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

47%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

21%

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals

65%

Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals

28%

Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

67%

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

50%

level

25%

Borac Šajkaš scores more

25%

Omladinac NB at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff