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Omladinac NB vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
FT
3 – 0
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
10/30/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Omladinac NB51%
×Draw24%
1. Maj Ruma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac NB
1.67
1. Maj Ruma
1.10

Omladinac NB creates 52% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 72 away

creates per match

Omladinac NB
1.61
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Omladinac NB
1.15
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw
75%
Omladinac NB or 1. Maj Ruma
76%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
49%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+
27%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals
81%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
50%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
23%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
67%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
30%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
67%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Omladinac NB scores more
51%
level
24%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
25%

Omladinac NB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Omladinac NB 3–0 1. Maj Ruma

Omladinac NB beat 1. Maj Ruma 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac in Novi Banovci.