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Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
5/7/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 14NACK5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Omiya Ardija36%
×Draw27%
Tokushima Vortis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiya Ardija
1.21
Tokushima Vortis
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

Omiya Ardija
1.40
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Omiya Ardija
1.26
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw
63%
Omiya Ardija or Tokushima Vortis
73%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
64%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
15%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
70%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
34%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
12%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
71%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
35%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
49%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more
36%
level
27%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
37%

Tokushima Vortis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Omiya Ardija 3-1 in J2 League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at NACK5 Stadium in Saitama.