Omiya Ardija 0–2 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Omiya Ardija

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Machida Zelvia

8/20/2022

J2 League · Round 32NACK5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Omiya Ardija36%

×Draw27%

Machida Zelvia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omiya ArdijaExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.29

Omiya Ardija

1.26

Machida Zelvia

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 127 away

1.40

creates per match

1.31

1.26

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Omiya Ardija

1.40

Machida Zelvia

1.31

allows per match

Omiya Ardija

1.26

Machida Zelvia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw

63%

Omiya Ardija or Machida Zelvia

73%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

64%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+

16%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals

72%

Omiya Ardija 2+ goals

36%

Omiya Ardija 3+ goals

13%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

72%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

37%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)

49%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.26

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more

36%

level

27%

Machida Zelvia scores more

37%

Machida Zelvia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff