Omiš 2–1 Uskok Klis: Result & Stats

Omiš

FT

2 – 1

Uskok Klis

8/26/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 1Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš51%

×Draw25%

Uskok Klis24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OmišExpected goals in this matchUskok Klis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Omiš

1.60

Uskok Klis

1.00

Omiš creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 87 away

1.64

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Omiš

1.64

Uskok Klis

0.89

allows per match

Omiš

1.11

Uskok Klis

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par

Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

Uskok Klis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Omiš or draw

76%

Omiš or Uskok Klis

75%

Draw or Uskok Klis

49%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+

27%

Uskok Klis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals

80%

Omiš 2+ goals

47%

Omiš 3+ goals

22%

Uskok Klis 1+ goals

63%

Uskok Klis 2+ goals

26%

Uskok Klis 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)

68%

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Omiš scores more

51%

level

25%

Uskok Klis scores more

24%

Omiš at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff