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Omiš vs Sloga Mravince — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
3/21/2026Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 19Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš48%
×Draw24%
Sloga Mravince27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
1.65
Sloga Mravince
1.18

Omiš creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 102 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
Sloga Mravince
1.25

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
Sloga Mravince
1.65

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

Sloga Mravince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
73%
Omiš or Sloga Mravince
76%
Draw or Sloga Mravince
52%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
25%
Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
81%
Omiš 2+ goals
49%
Omiš 3+ goals
23%
Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
69%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
33%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
64%
Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Omiš scores more
48%
level
24%
Sloga Mravince scores more
27%

Omiš at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omiš vs Sloga Mravince

Omiš beat Sloga Mravince 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.