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Omiš vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
0 – 2
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
5/4/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 27Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš37%
×Draw26%
HNK Zadar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
1.36
HNK Zadar
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 77 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
63%
Omiš or HNK Zadar
74%
Draw or HNK Zadar
63%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
17%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
74%
Omiš 2+ goals
39%
Omiš 3+ goals
16%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
74%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
39%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
50%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Omiš scores more
37%
level
26%
HNK Zadar scores more
37%

Omiš at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omiš vs HNK Zadar

HNK Zadar beat Omiš 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.