Omiš 4–1 HNK Hajduk Split II: Result & Stats

Omiš

FT

4 – 1

HNK Hajduk Split II

11/19/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 14Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Omiš68%

×Draw18%

HNK Hajduk Split II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OmišExpected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.96

Omiš

2.35

HNK Hajduk Split II

0.96

Omiš creates 145% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

0.80

1.11

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Omiš

1.64

HNK Hajduk Split II

0.80

allows per match

Omiš

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split II

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Omiš or draw

86%

Omiš or HNK Hajduk Split II

82%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II

32%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+

45%

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals

90%

Omiš 2+ goals

68%

Omiš 3+ goals

41%

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

62%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

25%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)

83%

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.35

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Omiš scores more

68%

level

18%

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

14%

Omiš at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff