Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Omiš vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
0 – 1
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
9/11/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš46%
×Draw25%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
1.55
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.15

Omiš creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.18

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.47

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
72%
Omiš or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
75%
Draw or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
54%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
24%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
79%
Omiš 2+ goals
46%
Omiš 3+ goals
20%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
68%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
32%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
62%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.18 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Omiš scores more
46%
level
25%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
28%

Omiš at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Omiš 0–1 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat Omiš 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.