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Omid Vahdat vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
CANC
10:45
Saipa
Saipa
11/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Omid Vahdat6%
×Draw14%
Saipa80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omid Vahdat
0.46
Saipa
2.38

Saipa creates 417% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 84 away

creates per match

Omid Vahdat
0.00
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Omid Vahdat
4.00
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Omid Vahdat+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omid Vahdat ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–217%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Omid Vahdat or draw
20%
Omid Vahdat or Saipa
86%
Draw or Saipa
94%

Winning margin

Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
1%
Saipa wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
37%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
8%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
1%
Saipa 1+ goals
91%
Saipa 2+ goals
68%
Saipa 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
6%
Saipa (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omid Vahdat at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.46

Saipa attack 0.75 + Omid Vahdat defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Omid Vahdat scores more
6%
level
14%
Saipa scores more
80%

Saipa at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Omid Vahdat vs Saipa — Match Preview

Omid Vahdat face Saipa on November 12, 2022 in this Azadegan League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Omid Vahdat host Saipa at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.