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Omid Vahdat vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
CANC
10:45
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
10/31/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Omid Vahdat4%
×Draw12%
Kheybar Khorramabad83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omid Vahdat
0.39
Kheybar Khorramabad
2.52

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 546% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 67 away

creates per match

Omid Vahdat
0.00
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Omid Vahdat
4.00
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Omid Vahdat+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omid Vahdat ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–218%
0–315%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Omid Vahdat or draw
17%
Omid Vahdat or Kheybar Khorramabad
88%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
96%

Winning margin

Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
1%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
32%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
6%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
1%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
92%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
71%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
5%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omid Vahdat at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.39

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Omid Vahdat defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Omid Vahdat scores more
4%
level
12%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
83%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Omid Vahdat face Kheybar Khorramabad (Azadegan League)

Azadegan League returns with Omid Vahdat hosting Kheybar Khorramabad. Match starts October 31, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Omid Vahdat host Kheybar Khorramabad at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.