Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Omid Vahdat vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
CANC
11:00
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
12/19/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Omid Vahdat5%
×Draw14%
Esteghlal Khuzestan81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omid Vahdat
0.48
Esteghlal Khuzestan
2.48

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 417% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 65 away

creates per match

Omid Vahdat
0.00
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.95

allows per match

Omid Vahdat
4.00
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.97

finishing

Omid Vahdat+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omid Vahdat ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–113%
0–216%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Omid Vahdat or draw
19%
Omid Vahdat or Esteghlal Khuzestan
86%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
95%

Winning margin

Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
1%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
38%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
8%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
1%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
92%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
70%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
6%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omid Vahdat at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.48

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.95 + Omid Vahdat defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Omid Vahdat scores more
5%
level
14%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
81%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Omid Vahdat face Esteghlal Khuzestan (Azadegan League)

Azadegan League returns with Omid Vahdat hosting Esteghlal Khuzestan. Match starts December 19, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Omid Vahdat host Esteghlal Khuzestan at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.