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Omid Vahdat vs Darya Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
FT
0 – 6
Darya Babol
Darya Babol
9/20/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Omid Vahdat7%
×Draw16%
Darya Babol77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omid Vahdat
0.56
Darya Babol
2.35

Darya Babol creates 320% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 34 away

creates per match

Omid Vahdat
0.00
Darya Babol
0.71

allows per match

Omid Vahdat
4.00
Darya Babol
1.12

finishing

Omid Vahdat+0.00on par
Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omid Vahdat ↓

Darya Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–215%
0–312%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Omid Vahdat or draw
23%
Omid Vahdat or Darya Babol
84%
Draw or Darya Babol
93%

Winning margin

Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
2%
Darya Babol wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
43%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
11%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
2%
Darya Babol 1+ goals
90%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
68%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
8%
Darya Babol (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omid Vahdat at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.56

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Omid Vahdat defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Omid Vahdat scores more
7%
level
16%
Darya Babol scores more
77%

Darya Babol at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Omid Vahdat 0–6 Darya Babol

Darya Babol beat Omid Vahdat 6-0 in Azadegan League on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium in Mashhad.