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Omarska vs Rudar Prijedor — 1st League - RS 2019

Omarska
Omarska
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
11/5/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Gradski Stadion Omarska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Omarska36%
×Draw29%
Rudar Prijedor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omarska
1.10
Rudar Prijedor
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

creates per match

Omarska
1.39
Rudar Prijedor
1.03

allows per match

Omarska
1.09
Rudar Prijedor
0.81

finishing

Omarska+0.00on par
Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omarska ↓

Rudar Prijedor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Omarska or draw
66%
Omarska or Rudar Prijedor
71%
Draw or Rudar Prijedor
64%

Winning margin

Omarska wins by 2+
15%
Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Omarska 1+ goals
67%
Omarska 2+ goals
30%
Omarska 3+ goals
10%
Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
65%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
29%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Omarska (draw refunded)
51%
Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omarska at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omarska attack 1.39 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Omarska defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Omarska scores more
36%
level
29%
Rudar Prijedor scores more
34%

Omarska at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Omarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Omarska 2–1 Rudar Prijedor

Omarska beat Rudar Prijedor 2-1 in 1st League - RS on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Omarska in Omarska.