Omarska 3–2 Podrinje Janja: Result & Stats

Omarska

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Podrinje Janja

3/20/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 18Gradski Stadion Omarska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Omarska59%

×Draw22%

Podrinje Janja18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OmarskaExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.95

Omarska

1.90

Podrinje Janja

0.95

Omarska creates 100% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 54 away

1.39

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Omarska

1.39

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

Omarska

1.09

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omarska+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omarska ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Omarska or draw

82%

Omarska or Podrinje Janja

78%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

41%

Winning margin

Omarska wins by 2+

35%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Omarska 1+ goals

85%

Omarska 2+ goals

56%

Omarska 3+ goals

29%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

61%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

25%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Omarska (draw refunded)

76%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omarska at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omarska attack 1.39 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.90

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Omarska defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Omarska scores more

59%

level

22%

Podrinje Janja scores more

18%

Omarska at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Omarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff