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Oman vs Thailand — Asian Cup 2019

Oman
Oman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Thailand
Thailand
1/21/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oman36%
×Draw37%
Thailand27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oman
0.80
Thailand
0.64

Oman creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oman
1.00
Thailand
0.60

allows per match

Oman
0.67
Thailand
0.60

finishing

Oman+0.00on par
Thailand+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oman ↓

Thailand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Oman or draw
73%
Oman or Thailand
63%
Draw or Thailand
64%

Winning margin

Oman wins by 2+
12%
Thailand wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oman 1+ goals
55%
Oman 2+ goals
19%
Oman 3+ goals
5%
Thailand 1+ goals
47%
Thailand 2+ goals
14%
Thailand 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oman (draw refunded)
58%
Thailand (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Thailand away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oman attack 1.00 + Thailand defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Thailand attack 0.60 + Oman defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oman scores more
36%
level
37%
Thailand scores more
27%

Oman at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oman 0 – 0 Thailand

Oman and Thailand drew 0-0 in Asian Cup on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.