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Oman U17 vs Korea DPR U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023

Oman U17
Oman U17
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Korea DPR U17
Korea DPR U17
4/11/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 3Sport Hall Stadium in King Abdullah sport city

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oman U1756%
×Draw19%
Korea DPR U1725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oman U17
2.50
Korea DPR U17
1.63

Oman U17 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oman U17
3.50
Korea DPR U17
2.25

allows per match

Oman U17
1.00
Korea DPR U17
1.50

finishing

Oman U17+0.00on par
Korea DPR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oman U17 ↓

Korea DPR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Oman U17 or draw
75%
Oman U17 or Korea DPR U17
81%
Draw or Korea DPR U17
44%

Winning margin

Oman U17 wins by 2+
36%
Korea DPR U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oman U17 1+ goals
92%
Oman U17 2+ goals
71%
Oman U17 3+ goals
45%
Korea DPR U17 1+ goals
80%
Korea DPR U17 2+ goals
48%
Korea DPR U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Oman U17 (draw refunded)
69%
Korea DPR U17 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oman U17 at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Korea DPR U17 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oman U17 attack 3.50 + Korea DPR U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Korea DPR U17 attack 2.25 + Oman U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Oman U17 scores more
56%
level
19%
Korea DPR U17 scores more
25%

Oman U17 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Oman U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC U17 Asian Cup: Oman U17 2–2 Korea DPR U17

Oman U17 and Korea DPR U17 drew 2-2 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sport Hall Stadium in King Abdullah sport city in Jeddah.