Oman U17 4–0 Afghanistan U17: Result & Stats

Oman U17

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Afghanistan U17

11/30/2025

AFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oman U1787%

×Draw8%

Afghanistan U174%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oman U17Expected goals in this matchAfghanistan U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

0.75

Oman U17

3.63

Afghanistan U17

0.75

Oman U17 creates 384% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.50

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

Oman U17

3.50

Afghanistan U17

0.50

allows per match

Oman U17

1.00

Afghanistan U17

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oman U17+0.00on par

Afghanistan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oman U17 ↓

Afghanistan U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Oman U17 or draw

96%

Oman U17 or Afghanistan U17

92%

Draw or Afghanistan U17

13%

Winning margin

Oman U17 wins by 2+

72%

Afghanistan U17 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Oman U17 1+ goals

97%

Oman U17 2+ goals

87%

Oman U17 3+ goals

68%

Afghanistan U17 1+ goals

53%

Afghanistan U17 2+ goals

17%

Afghanistan U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oman U17 (draw refunded)

95%

Afghanistan U17 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oman U17 at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Afghanistan U17 away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oman U17 attack 3.50 + Afghanistan U17 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.63

Afghanistan U17 attack 0.50 + Oman U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Oman U17 scores more

87%

level

8%

Afghanistan U17 scores more

4%

Oman U17 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Oman U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Oman

Afghanistan

Manager: Anwar Al Habsi

Manager: Elias Manuocher