Olympique Strasbourg 0–6 Saint Etienne

Olympique Strasbourg

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Saint Etienne

Rémy Cabella 85', 3'

Kenny Rocha Santos 83'

Loïs Diony 56'

Wahbi Khazri 46'

Loïc Perrin 8'

1/6/2019

Coupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade de la Meinau (Strasbourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Strasbourg20%

×Draw20%

Saint Etienne60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique StrasbourgExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.21

Olympique Strasbourg

1.22

Saint Etienne

2.21

Saint Etienne creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

2.08

2.33

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Olympique Strasbourg

1.67

Saint Etienne

2.08

allows per match

Olympique Strasbourg

2.33

Saint Etienne

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Strasbourg+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Strasbourg ↓

Saint Etienne →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Olympique Strasbourg or draw

40%

Olympique Strasbourg or Saint Etienne

80%

Draw or Saint Etienne

80%

Winning margin

Olympique Strasbourg wins by 2+

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Olympique Strasbourg 1+ goals

70%

Olympique Strasbourg 2+ goals

34%

Olympique Strasbourg 3+ goals

12%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

89%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

65%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Olympique Strasbourg (draw refunded)

25%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympique Strasbourg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Strasbourg attack 1.67 + Saint Etienne defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.22

Saint Etienne attack 2.08 + Olympique Strasbourg defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olympique Strasbourg scores more

20%

level

20%

Saint Etienne scores more

60%

Saint Etienne at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

56'

83'

85'

Olympique

Saint

⚽

⚽2

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Khettab

Olympique Strasbourg substitutes

ArslanDasdemirKibarAhammadGilligMacalouAatifi

Manager: J. Gasset

Saint Etienne substitutes

SantosDiousséChambostCamaraGueyeMoulinBenkhedim

Coupe de France: Olympique Strasbourg 0–6 Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat Olympique Strasbourg 6-0 in Coupe de France on January 6, 2019.

Goals: Rémy Cabella (3', 85'), Loïc Perrin (8'), Wahbi Khazri (46'), Loïs Diony (56'), Kenny Rocha Santos (83').

The match was played at Stade de la Meinau (Strasbourg).

Olympique Strasbourg vs Saint Etienne — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Olympique Strasbourg 0–6 Saint Etienne