Olympique Safi 2–1 Olympique Khouribga

Olympique Safi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Khouribga

12/26/2021

Botola Pro · Round 14Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Safi43%

×Draw29%

Olympique Khouribga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique SafiExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.89

Olympique Safi

1.21

Olympique Khouribga

0.89

Olympique Safi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 60 away

1.08

creates per match

0.82

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Olympique Safi

1.08

Olympique Khouribga

0.82

allows per match

Olympique Safi

0.95

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw

73%

Olympique Safi or Olympique Khouribga

71%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

57%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

19%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

70%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

34%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

12%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

59%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

22%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

62%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Safi scores more

43%

level

29%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

27%

Olympique Safi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff