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Olympique Safi vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
1/7/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Olympique Safi36%
×Draw31%
Maghreb Fès33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.04
Maghreb Fès
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
1.08
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.95
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
67%
Olympique Safi or Maghreb Fès
69%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
64%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
14%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
65%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
28%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
9%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
62%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
25%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
53%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
36%
level
31%
Maghreb Fès scores more
33%

Olympique Safi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Safi vs Maghreb Fès

Olympique Safi and Maghreb Fès drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.