Maghreb Fès 0–1 Olympique Safi: Result & Stats

Maghreb Fès

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Safi

12/15/2024

Botola Pro · Round 14Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Maghreb Fès44%

×Draw29%

Olympique Safi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maghreb FèsExpected goals in this matchOlympique Safi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.89

Maghreb Fès

1.23

Olympique Safi

0.89

Maghreb Fès creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

1.16

creates per match

0.96

0.82

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Maghreb Fès

1.16

Olympique Safi

0.96

allows per match

Maghreb Fès

0.82

Olympique Safi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Olympique Safi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw

73%

Maghreb Fès or Olympique Safi

71%

Draw or Olympique Safi

56%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

20%

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

71%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

35%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

13%

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

59%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

22%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

62%

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more

44%

level

29%

Olympique Safi scores more

27%

Maghreb Fès at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff