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Olympique Safi vs CR Khemis Zemamra — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
4/22/2026Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 12Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Olympique Safi42%
×Draw29%
CR Khemis Zemamra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.22
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.96

Olympique Safi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 73 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
1.08
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.97

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.95
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.36

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
71%
Olympique Safi or CR Khemis Zemamra
71%
Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra
58%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
18%
CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
12%
CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
62%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
25%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
59%
CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 0.97 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
42%
level
29%
CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
29%

Olympique Safi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Safi vs CR Khemis Zemamra

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Olympique Safi 3-1 in Botola Pro on April 22, 2026.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.