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Olympique Medea vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
3/12/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olympique Medea52%
×Draw27%
USM Bel Abbes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.44
USM Bel Abbes
0.82

Olympique Medea creates 76% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.14
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.04
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
79%
Olympique Medea or USM Bel Abbes
73%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
48%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
26%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
76%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
42%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
18%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
56%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
20%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
71%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
52%
level
27%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
21%

Olympique Medea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Olympique Medea 1–1 USM Bel Abbes

Olympique Medea and USM Bel Abbes drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on March 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.