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Olympique Medea vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
5/26/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Olympique Medea40%
×Draw30%
USM Alger30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.15
USM Alger
0.96

Olympique Medea creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 123 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.14
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.04
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
70%
Olympique Medea or USM Alger
70%
Draw or USM Alger
60%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
17%
USM Alger wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
68%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
11%
USM Alger 1+ goals
62%
USM Alger 2+ goals
25%
USM Alger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
57%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

USM Alger attack 0.87 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
40%
level
30%
USM Alger scores more
30%

Olympique Medea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Olympique Medea 1–0 USM Alger

Olympique Medea beat USM Alger 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.