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Olympique Medea vs El Eulma — League #187 2026

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
2 – 1
El Eulma
El Eulma
12/25/2015League #187League #187 · Round 15Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Medea35%
×Draw33%
El Eulma32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
0.92
El Eulma
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.17
El Eulma
0.33

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.42
El Eulma
0.67

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
El Eulma+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

El Eulma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
68%
Olympique Medea or El Eulma
67%
Draw or El Eulma
65%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
12%
El Eulma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
60%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
7%
El Eulma 1+ goals
59%
El Eulma 2+ goals
22%
El Eulma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
52%
El Eulma (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

El Eulma away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.17 + El Eulma defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

El Eulma attack 0.33 + Olympique Medea defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
35%
level
33%
El Eulma scores more
32%

Olympique Medea at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Medea vs El Eulma

Olympique Medea beat El Eulma 2-1 in League #187 on December 25, 2015.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.