Olympique Medea 0–0 CR Belouizdad: Result & Stats

Olympique Medea

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CR Belouizdad

2/3/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Olympique Medea30%

×Draw30%

CR Belouizdad40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique MedeaExpected goals in this matchCR Belouizdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.13

Olympique Medea

0.95

CR Belouizdad

1.13

CR Belouizdad creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 123 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.04

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Olympique Medea

1.14

CR Belouizdad

1.22

allows per match

Olympique Medea

1.04

CR Belouizdad

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

CR Belouizdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw

60%

Olympique Medea or CR Belouizdad

70%

Draw or CR Belouizdad

70%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

11%

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

61%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

25%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

7%

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

68%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

31%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

43%

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

CR Belouizdad attack 1.22 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Medea scores more

30%

level

30%

CR Belouizdad scores more

40%

CR Belouizdad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Hais Benderrouya← C. Keddad

49'

R. Gharrich← O. Boudoumi

60'

Y. Bechou← M. Belkhir

65'

I. Benallal← H. Khalfallah

76'

A. Belharrane← H. Selmi

81'

B. Bourorga← M. Baâli

Olympique

CR

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Rouabah

49'▲R. Gharrich←▼O. Boudoumi

65'▲I. Benallal←▼H. Khalfallah

81'▲B. Bourorga←▼M. Baâli

Olympique Medea substitutes

GharrichBenallalBourorga

Manager: F. Dumas

46'▲R. Hais Benderrouya←▼C. Keddad

60'▲Y. Bechou←▼M. Belkhir

76'▲A. Belharrane←▼H. Selmi

CR Belouizdad substitutes

BenderrouyaBechouBelharrane