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Olympique Medea vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
1/30/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Olympique Medea43%
×Draw28%
ASO Chlef29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.27
ASO Chlef
0.98

Olympique Medea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 106 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.14
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.04
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
71%
Olympique Medea or ASO Chlef
72%
Draw or ASO Chlef
57%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
19%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
72%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
36%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
14%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
62%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
26%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
60%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
43%
level
28%
ASO Chlef scores more
29%

Olympique Medea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Medea vs ASO Chlef

Olympique Medea beat ASO Chlef 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.