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Olympique Medea vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
6/26/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Medea50%
×Draw26%
AS AIN Mlila23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.48
AS AIN Mlila
0.91

Olympique Medea creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.14
AS AIN Mlila
0.78

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.04
AS AIN Mlila
1.82

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

AS AIN Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
77%
Olympique Medea or AS AIN Mlila
74%
Draw or AS AIN Mlila
50%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
25%
AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
77%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
43%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
19%
AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
60%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
23%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
68%
AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
50%
level
26%
AS AIN Mlila scores more
23%

Olympique Medea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Olympique Medea 1–0 AS AIN Mlila

Olympique Medea beat AS AIN Mlila 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.