Olympique Marcquois 0–1 Olympique St Quentin

Olympique Marcquois

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique St Quentin

11/20/2022

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Georges Niquet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympique Marcquois41%

×Draw22%

Olympique St Quentin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique MarcquoisExpected goals in this matchOlympique St Quentin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.69

Olympique Marcquois

1.81

Olympique St Quentin

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.63

creates per match

2.00

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Olympique Marcquois

1.63

Olympique St Quentin

2.00

allows per match

Olympique Marcquois

1.38

Olympique St Quentin

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Marcquois+0.00on par

Olympique St Quentin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Marcquois ↓

Olympique St Quentin →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Olympique Marcquois or draw

64%

Olympique Marcquois or Olympique St Quentin

78%

Draw or Olympique St Quentin

59%

Winning margin

Olympique Marcquois wins by 2+

22%

Olympique St Quentin wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Olympique Marcquois 1+ goals

84%

Olympique Marcquois 2+ goals

54%

Olympique Marcquois 3+ goals

27%

Olympique St Quentin 1+ goals

82%

Olympique St Quentin 2+ goals

50%

Olympique St Quentin 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Olympique Marcquois (draw refunded)

53%

Olympique St Quentin (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympique Marcquois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Olympique St Quentin away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Marcquois attack 1.63 + Olympique St Quentin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Olympique St Quentin attack 2.00 + Olympique Marcquois defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympique Marcquois scores more

41%

level

22%

Olympique St Quentin scores more

36%

Olympique Marcquois at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olympique Marcquois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff