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Olympique Marcquois vs Estac Troyes — Coupe de France 2018

Olympique Marcquois
Olympique Marcquois
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyesadvanced
S. Diaby 8'
T. Bentayeb 81'
M. Diop 78'
E. Odede 52'
12/20/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Georges Niquet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olympique Marcquois32%
×Draw25%
Estac Troyes43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Marcquois
1.27
Estac Troyes
1.53

Estac Troyes creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Olympique Marcquois
1.63
Estac Troyes
1.69

allows per match

Olympique Marcquois
1.38
Estac Troyes
0.92

finishing

Olympique Marcquois+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Marcquois ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olympique Marcquois or draw
57%
Olympique Marcquois or Estac Troyes
75%
Draw or Estac Troyes
68%

Winning margin

Olympique Marcquois wins by 2+
13%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olympique Marcquois 1+ goals
72%
Olympique Marcquois 2+ goals
36%
Olympique Marcquois 3+ goals
14%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
78%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
45%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Olympique Marcquois (draw refunded)
42%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Marcquois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Marcquois attack 1.63 + Estac Troyes defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Estac Troyes attack 1.69 + Olympique Marcquois defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Marcquois scores more
32%
level
25%
Estac Troyes scores more
43%

Estac Troyes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. DiawaraEstac TroyesEstac Troyes · D
7.6

Match Events

8'
S. Diaby↳ L. Lassilaa
52'
E. Odede↳ M. Diop
58'
B. Diaby← S. Diaby
71'
M. Ifnaoui← J. Assoumou
71'
M. Detourbet← E. Odede
72'
Loucas Gabert
75'
M. Vanbaleghem← J. Mawungu
78'
M. Diop↳ M. Ifnaoui
81'
T. Bentayeb↳ M. Detourbet
82'
A. Bossekota← W. Pau
82'
K. Dansoko← K. Mammou
87'
C. Batola← T. Bentayeb
90+1'
R. Murcy← A. Phliponeau

Possession

43%Olympique

Shots

13Olympique

Pass accuracy

48%Olympique

Statistics

OlympiqueEstac
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots19
5Corners4
8Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots19
4On Target9
5Off Target7
4Blocked3
8Inside Box16
5Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
376Total Passes504
294Accurate Passes418
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls17
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Olympique Marcquois vs Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes beat Olympique Marcquois 3-1 in Coupe de France on December 20, 2025.

Goals: S. Diaby (8'), E. Odede (52'), M. Diop (78'), T. Bentayeb (81').

Estac Troyes controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade Georges Niquet in Marcq en Baroeul.