Olympique Lyonnais U19 1–0 RB Leipzig U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RB Leipzig U19

M. Mbenga 54'

12/10/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Lyonnais U1956%

×Draw22%

RB Leipzig U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique Lyonnais U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.17

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.98

RB Leipzig U19

1.17

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

RB Leipzig U19

1.00

allows per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.33

RB Leipzig U19

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Lyonnais U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or draw

78%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or RB Leipzig U19

78%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

44%

Winning margin

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

33%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

86%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

59%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

31%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

69%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

33%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

72%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.33 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.98

RB Leipzig U19 attack 1.00 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

56%

level

22%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

22%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

N. Jones← N. Holm

33'

A. Pontet

46'

M. Felix← C. Lukeba

47'

S. Bonnah← F. Hartmann

54'

M. Mbenga↳ B. Barcola

61'

A. Schulz← G. Madsen

68'

N. Bonnet

70'

M. Lefebvre← N. Bonnet

70'

M. Sounni← E. Wissa

72'

A. Minolien

77'

M. Gusto← A. Minolien

81'

D. Böttcher← N. Jones

81'

M. Winter← M. Bidstrup

89'

B. Talar← F. da Silva

Olympique

RB

33

Schulze

25

Candido

12

Talabidi

16

▼

Madsen

14

Krauß

6

▼

Bidstrup

5

Martel

8

Wosz

10

▼

Hartmann

13

Bias

9

▼

Holm

1

Ousmane

2

▼

Minolien

4

▼

Lukeba

5

Pontet

3

Altikulac

10

▼

Silva

11

⚽

Mbenga

8

▼

Bonnet

6

Benaissa

7

A

Barcola

9

▼

Wissa

Manager: E. Hély

46'▲M. Felix←▼C. Lukeba

70'▲M. Lefebvre←▼N. Bonnet

70'▲M. Sounni←▼E. Wissa

77'▲M. Gusto←▼A. Minolien

89'▲B. Talar←▼F. da Silva

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

13Felix15Lefebvre18Sounni12Gusto14Talar17N'Kongue16Margueron

Manager: A. Blessin

17'▲N. Jones←▼N. Holm

47'▲S. Bonnah←▼F. Hartmann

61'▲A. Schulz←▼G. Madsen

81'▲D. Böttcher←▼N. Jones

81'▲M. Winter←▼M. Bidstrup

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

11Jones7Bonnah21Schulz17Böttcher23Winter22Eutinger2Meyer

UEFA Youth League: Olympique Lyonnais U19 1–0 RB Leipzig U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 10, 2019.

Goals: M. Mbenga (54').

The match was played at Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu in Décines-Charpieu.

Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Olympique Lyonnais U19 1–0 RB Leipzig U19