Olympique Lyonnais U19 3–3 Hoffenheim U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hoffenheim U19

L. Pintor 82' (pen)

T. Matam 69'

H. Rafia 35'

M. Geschwill 90'

D. Otto 62'

D. Alberico 45' (pen)

11/7/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu (Décines-Charpieu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Lyonnais U1949%

×Draw21%

Hoffenheim U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique Lyonnais U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.67

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.17

Hoffenheim U19

1.67

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

Hoffenheim U19

2.00

allows per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.33

Hoffenheim U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Lyonnais U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or draw

70%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or Hoffenheim U19

79%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

51%

Winning margin

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

29%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

89%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

64%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

36%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

81%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

50%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.33 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.00 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

30%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

H. Rafia↳ L. Pintor

45'

D. AlbericoPenalty

58'

F. Stojilkovic← E. Tubluk

62'

I. Elmkies← A. Onana

62'

D. Otto↳ D. Alberico

69'

T. Matam↳ Y. Soumaré

76'

E. Lepaul← T. Oualembo

82'

L. PintorPenalty

84'

M. Bard← L. Perrier

84'

M. Cherki← H. Rafia

86'

B. Landwehr← T. Heiland

90+3'

R. Anaba← L. Pintor

90+3'

M. Mbenga← T. Matam

90'

M. Geschwill↳ S. Lengle

Olympique

Hoffenheim

1

6

4

3

5

A

Lengle

10

▼

Heiland

7

▼

Tubluk

8

▼

Onana

2

⚽

Geschwill

9

⚽

Otto

11

⚽A

16

26

29

20

10

⚽

▼

Rafia

11

⚽

▼

Matam

4

▼

Perrier

34

Rodet

17

⚽A

▼

Pintor

9

▼

Oualembo

7

A

Soumaré

Manager: S. Roche

76'▲E. Lepaul←▼T. Oualembo

84'▲M. Bard←▼L. Perrier

84'▲M. Cherki←▼H. Rafia

90+3'▲R. Anaba←▼L. Pintor

90+3'▲M. Mbenga←▼T. Matam

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

28Lepaul3Bard23Cherki25Anaba24Mbenga1Margueron12Lukeba

Manager: M. Rapp

58'▲F. Stojilkovic←▼E. Tubluk

62'▲I. Elmkies←▼A. Onana

86'▲B. Landwehr←▼T. Heiland

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

14Stojilkovic16Elmkies13Landwehr17Linsbichler15Curda12Nitzl23Philipp